NEW YORK, Sept. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- BrainJuicer Group PLC (AIM: BJU) today announces the launch of System1 Politics, a specialist unit, using its behavioral science based Fame, Feeling & Fluency [3F's] model to improve the prediction of election outcomes.
Having used the 3F's model to correctly predict that Trump and Clinton would win their respective parties' nominations, System1 Politics is launching a US election prediction site which will update weekly from now to the election: http://system1politics.com.
System1 Politics applies the basic laws of consumer psychology to political choice. People use three baseline heuristics to make decisions:
- Fame (if something comes easily to mind, it's a good choice)
- Feeling (if I feel good about something, it's a good choice)
- Fluency (if something is quickly recognizable, it's a good choice)
These three heuristics predict the brands people will buy and how people will vote. The candidate who performs best on the combined 3F's will win.
The US election shows the method in action. Almost every poll since January, using traditional voting intention questions, has had Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead of Donald Trump. The 3F's tell a different story. Trump and Clinton are equally famous, a measure that takes a long time to build or decline. Fluency is a measure of distinctiveness, a measure that changes faster than Fame but still takes time to build. Trump, with his extraordinary hair and consistently outrageous statements, consistently leads Clinton on Fluency.
Feeling is the measure that can change from week to week. Clinton has had the Feeling advantage over Trump for most of the year. Her Feeling advantage is matched by Trump's Fluency advantage which currently brings the two candidates neck-and-neck.
The System1 Politics unit, run by BrainJuicer's Tom Ewing, will report a fresh wave of data every Tuesday, focusing in particular on the changes in Feeling which will ultimately predict the winner, and offering a sample of consumers' raw emotional reaction to the two candidates.
"People make choices at a gut level," says Ewing, "and Fame, Feeling & Fluency are the shortcuts that guide them. Our data shows there's nothing to choose between Trump and Clinton on Fame - they're both remarkably well-known - but Trump has had a consistent advantage on Fluency, defining the race with simple and distinctive images, policies and phrases, from the border wall to 'crooked Hillary'. So at this basic level, the election boils down to whether Clinton can overcome that by building a lead on Feeling, the gut emotional response that guides decisions. If Trump can close that gap - by making people feel better about him or worse about Clinton - he wins."
BrainJuicer CEO John Kearon got the idea to tackle political research after the disastrous failure of the polls to call the 2015 UK election. Pilot System1 Politics studies predicted the Trump candidacy and the Brexit vote, and Kearon is excited at the prospects for the unit, which will also be issuing a report on UK politicians. "This project combines the innovative techniques of BrainJuicer and the philosophy and planning acumen of our System1 creative agency. It's a great showcase of our work and we'd encourage any media outlets or political parties to get in touch if they want to understand the real dynamics of politics beyond the false precision of polling. And it's nail-biting seeing each week's results come in!"
Follow the weekly tracker at http://system1politics.com.
Media Contact: Susan Griffin, BrainJuicer, 917-216-8940, susan.griffin@brainjuicer.com
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SOURCE BrainJuicer
